7 reasons why Rio 2016 may suffer the same fate as Tokyo 1940

The Closing Ceremonies of the Olympic Games are similar to presidential elections in that they both provide moments when one stops and considers whether things had gotten better or worse over the last four years.  Likewise, they force us to examine the next four years and to determine if they will be years that promise hope or trepidation.  I can say that when I watched the Closing Ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing I felt hope.  But this year, as I watched the Olympic flag pass from London to Rio de Janeiro, I did so with trepidation.  I wondered if Rio 2016 will realize its dream of being the first South American city to host the games or will it share the same fate as Tokyo did in 1940. 

 

The following is a list of seven very possible events or phenomenon that may turn Rio’s Olympic dream into nothing more than a wishful fantasy.

1)      Collapse of the Euro

Over the last few years the governments and central banks of Europe have attempted to prevent the collapse of the Euro.  With Greece no better off than before the bail out and the crisis spreading to Italy, Spain, and Portugal it appears that these attempts have done nothing but postpone the inevitable.  If a collapse should occur, its effects would be felt throughout the global economy, thus destabilizing an already unstable world. 

2)      Disintegration of the European Union and the rise of non-liberal forces

Either triggered by a collapse of the Euro or member nations just deciding that the union no longer serves their best interests, the disintegration of the European Union is appearing more likely every day.  Throughout the member nations anti-EU (and anti-German) sentiment is growing. 

Greece's Far-right 'Golden Dawn' Party

While the end of the E.U. is not in itself a threat to global stability, the form that it takes can be. If history is any indicator, we can expect to see an increase in the popularity of anti-democratic/anti-liberal political parties as the economic conditions worsen. This is what happened in the Great Depression of the 1930s, when totalitarianism replaced democracy as the most common form of government in Europe. And we all know what that led to.

3)      Muslim Extremism

Terrorism is no longer the only threat that Muslim extremism poses to the world.  As the Liberal Arab Spring turns into the Muslim Extremists Winter we can expect to see not only a less stable Middle East, but a less stable world.  Oil and Israel are the obvious two threats but we cannot discount the danger to Europe. With points 1 and 2 being real possibilities, there is a good chance that Europe may find itself politically fractured and economically weak. Although it is politically correct to highlight Christian European aggression against the Muslims (i.e. the Crusades) it needs to be remembered that Islam has attacked Christian Europe in just about every century and such an economically prostrate and politically disunited  Europe would present a very tempting target. A perusal of the rhetoric of many of the Muslim extremist fractions now obtaining power in formerly moderate Arab states clearly shows that this dream is not dead.

4)      Iran-Israeli War

With the rise of Muslim extremism comes a re-alignment of alliances in the Middle East. The once moderate Arab states, who were neutral on Israel, are now switching alliances.  We are seeing an aggressive and anti-Israel Iran gaining greater influence over the whole Middle East. With an ever growing number of her neighbors becoming hostile Israel cannot stand-by and let Iran become a nuclear power.  If the world is not willing to prevent this, then Israel will have to do it herself.  With oil being the life blood of the industrial world the resulting disruption—and the disruption of oil will be a prime target—would put the already weak global economy over the edge.  The instability this will cause cannot be understated.

5)      Militarized China

China's New Aircraft Carrier

For over two decades China has had the largest military on earth. But, as a recent article in The Economist points out, that military is now becoming a very large modern one capable of threatening the military power of the United States, which has served as a restraint on China’s expansionist desires.  As the power of this great nation grows will she feel emboldened enough to reclaim Taiwan or to return greater Asia to the hegemony of an Asian country? 

 6)     Decline in Anglosphere Influence

Whether we like it or not, we live in a world created by and in the image of the Anglosphere. During its 400 years of dominance the Anglosphere has spread the ideals and principles of the enlightenment, ushered in the industrial age, promoted free trade, opened the sea lanes for all, fought for democracy and championed human rights. It has defended the world against Napoleon’s tyrannical despotism, Hitler’s genocidal socialism, and Stalin's bloodthirsty communism. The unmatched power of the Anglosphere has been a stabilizing force in the world. Without the Anglosphere the world would have been a very dark and barbaric place.  Now, many are saying that we are witnessing the end of Anglosphere dominance.  If this is true, then we can definitely count on a very unstable world as the anti-liberal forces of authoritarian China and theocratic Islam make a bid to re-construct the world in their image.

7)      Global Economic Collapse

Although any one or combination of the above can trigger a collapse of the global economy, they are not required.  In fact, there may not be a need for a trigger at all.  The global economy may collapse on its own as central banks and governments experiment with theoretical and untested economic policies, which, as we have seen in point 1, have not been very effective.  Critics argue that these experimental policies have done nothing but postpone the inevitable and, by doing so, increased the impact of the collapse once it happens.  If they are correct then the world is headed for very dark and difficult times.

I know that this is a very gloomy view of our near future but I also know that I am not alone in sensing the danger the next four years may bring.  In a recent survey, 61% of Americans believe that there is a catastrophe of historical proportions lingering just beyond the horizon and I bet that a survey in other countries would produce similar results.  If, what they sense, does come to pass than I am afraid that Rio 2016 may not happen or, if the games do take place, it will do so in a world a lot less democratic and a lot more violent.

Countdown to Independence Day: Saving our Liberty #1

Over the next several days leading up to Independence Day I will be posting the 10 steps that must be taken to preserve our great nation and the principles it was established on.  Each day will cover one of the steps as they appear in my book Liberty Inherited.  It is my hope that, in some small way, I can get Americans to start thinking of what they are on the verge of throwing away.  Please note that any additional comments that I add to the original text will be in italics.  

1. Do not take the way things are for granted

“It is,” as Daniel Hannan says, “human nature to take for granted institutions that you have known throughout your life.” Growing up in a world where constitutional democracy is the norm it is incomprehensible to imagine mankind returning to a state of servitude. But it must be remembered that the classical liberal principles that the United States was built on and which has now spread around the world is not the norm. Until the end of World War II the world was dominated by tyrannical, autocratic, and absolutist rulers. The result of this was that the life of the average man was one of poverty, servitude, and desperation. When we consider that men have been forming civilizations as long ago as 4500 BC it becomes clear that 60 years of liberty and freedom does not guarantee the world will continue to embrace those principles.

In Europe there is already a move away from constitutional democracy. As explained in previous chapters liberal democracy is fairly new to the countries of Europe. As we can see from the chart, they have relatively little experience with it at all.

 

With the majority of them having less than 60 years of experience it is uncertain if their democratic institutions can resist a serious crises or challenge. History and current trends indicate that the answer is no. The first attempt with widespread democracy in Europe occurred after World War I. Except for Russia, which turned to communism, all of the large countries and many of the smaller ones attempted to establish a democratic form of government. These newly formed democracies were tested by the depression of the 1930s and most of them failed miserably. By the start of World War II, totalitarianism had replaced democracy in almost all of Europe. Even today, with the European Union, the IMF, the World Bank, and United Nations, we are seeing democratically established governments subordinating themselves to transnational and international organizations governed by bureaucratic elites. This does not bode well for a country founded and developed on classical liberal principles. 

Since the publishing of Liberty Inherited, the Euro crisis has deepened and as a result, representative democracy has suffered.  In both Greece and Italy popularly elected leaders have been replaced by those who will serve the best interest of the European Union even if it is at the expense of their nation and its citizens.  As the crisis deepens, it will be interesting to watch how quickly continental Europe sacrifices democracy and liberty for order and security.